WALSH PURE SPREADER - Pure Hedge Division
WALSH PURE SPREADER
Pure Hedge Division
Rich Moran 9/10/2025
DEC-MAR Corn Spread (ZCZ25-ZCH26)
Since the end of August (8/29/25) we have been looking for the right time to get long the DEC-MAR Corn Spread (ZCZ25-ZCH26). That would be buying DEC ’25 Corn and selling MAR ’26 Corn. This spread was been trending down since its 52-week high of -10¼ on February 19th. It hit a 14-day low, and what was at the time a 52-week low, of -18¼ on august 13th. It has traded somewhat sideways between -18½ and -16½ since July 9th. I’ve been waiting for it to settle back above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages for an opportunity to get long this spread. That finally happened today when it settled above both moving averages at -17½.
I think there might be some short covering in the corn futures before the WASDE Report comes out this Friday (9/12/25). The report could also revise last month’s extremely high Bushel Per Acre number of 188.8 that the USDA put out last month. As of mid-August, Southern Rust Disease was confirmed in 18 US States. This is earlier in the year than it would usually appear and it may be spreading north. Also, there is always the possibility of a sudden trade deal. Any of these might have a bullish effect on the outright corn market. If the corn market does in fact continue its uptrend, I feel Dec-Corn (ZCZ25) could win the race up versus Mar-Corn (ZCH26), strengthening the ZCZ25-ZCH26 Spread. Even if the corn market does not rally, I think Dec-Corn might remain stronger than Mar-Corn and the spread could continue to strengthen. Full Carry for ZCZ25-ZCH26 is 30.82 and we are currently 57% of Full Carry at -17½.
Today, ZCZ25-ZCH26 spread settled at -17½, the high of the day. This is just above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.
If the ZCZ25-ZCH26 opens at -17½ or higher, I suggest trying to get long the spread (buying Dec-Corn versus selling Mar’26-Corn) at -17½. We will use a short stop just below the 52-week low of -18¾.
If we are able to buy this spread at -17½ ….
Risk 2 cents (-19½) or $100 Per Spread to make 6 cents (-11½) or $300 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
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Following up on the still active past trade ideas:
- 9/5/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT Live Cattle-OCT Lean Hogs)
Today’s settlement: 134.325, Short at 139.900
On Friday (9/5) I suggested trying to get short the LEV25-HEV25 Spread at 139.900 or better on Monday. We were able to sell the spread at 139.900 om Monday.
Risking 6.000 (145.900) or $2,400 Per Spread to make 18.000 (121.900) or $7,200 Per Spread, plus fees and commission.
- 9/3/25: ZMZ25-ZMH29 (DEC-MAR Soybean-Meal Spread)
Today’s settlement: -8.9, Long at -10.2
On Wednesday I suggested trying to get long the ZMZ25-ZMH25 Spread at Wednesday’s settlement of -10.2 or better when the market reopened for Thursday market. The opening was -10.2 and it traded -10.3, so we are long at -10.2.
We are risking 1.3 dollars (-11.5) or $130 Per Spread to make 5 dollars (-5.2) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
- 8/29/25: ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread)
…. Today’s article is about this spread.
I think we should try getting long the ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread) if we can settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. Today, we settled about 1 cent below both moving averages.
- 8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)
If we can get back above and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think we should try buying the spread with a short stop below these moving averages.
Today, we settled about 2 cents below these two moving averages again.
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -19½, long at -17½
The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25. You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.
Risking 3½ cents (-21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (-8) or $475
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))
Today’s Settlement: -17½, long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fess and commissions.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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